If there’s one event that could define Nigeria’s capital markets in 2026, it’s the planned listing of Dangote Refinery on the Nigerian Exchange.
A Game-Changing Proposition
Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, is preparing to list a 10% stake in his $20 billion refinery on the NGX, and he’s bringing something unprecedented to the table: the dividends will be paid in dollars.
On Thursday, December 11, 2025, Dangote announced at the unveiling of Dangote Vision 2030 at Eko Hotel in Lagos that investors will be able to purchase shares in naira but receive dividends in US dollars. As he put it simply: “You buy in naira, but you get dividends in dollars.”
In a country where currency volatility has been a persistent headache for investors, this structure offers a genuine hedge. The naira has faced significant depreciation pressures in recent years, and while it showed some resilience in 2025, and strengthened modestly to close the year at ₦1,448.03 to the dollar, currency risk remains a real concern for long-term investors.
Dangote explained that these payouts would be backed by substantial export earnings. The dollar-denominated dividends will be underpinned by a projected $6.4 billion in export earnings, largely from petrochemicals, including polypropylene and fertiliser. This creates a natural dollar revenue stream that makes the promise credible rather than speculative.
The Scale of the Opportunity
The Dangote Refinery processes 650,000 barrels of crude daily, making it Africa’s largest refinery. Having commenced diesel and aviation fuel production in January 2025 and added petrol output in September, the refinery is already operational and contributing to Nigeria’s goal of fuel self-sufficiency.
But here’s where it gets even more exciting: Dangote has announced plans to expand the refinery’s capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day within three years, more than doubling current output. This kind of expansion potential in an already-operational facility is rare in African markets.
The broader Dangote Group story is equally compelling. The conglomerate has demonstrated impressive growth momentum, with revenues climbing from $3.3 billion to $18 billion over the past five years, while EBITDA rose from $1.8 billion to $2.8 billion. Looking ahead, the Group is targeting revenues of $100 billion by 2030, up from the current $18 billion, with a market capitalisation exceeding $200 billion, which will place it among the world’s 100 largest companies.
Perfect Timing for Nigerian Investors
The timing of this IPO couldn’t be better for Nigeria’s capital markets. The NGX just delivered a stunning performance in 2025, with the All-Share Index rising 51.19% to close at 155,613 points. Total equity market capitalisation expanded by more than ₦36.6 trillion, and reached ₦99.38 trillion. This made it one of the largest absolute increases to be recorded across global equity markets during the year.
According to Temi Popoola, Group Managing Director and CEO of NGX Group, “The Nigerian capital market in 2025 demonstrated resilience despite domestic and global economic headwinds. The performance highlights the importance of policy consistency, purposeful reforms and strategic collaboration in strengthening investor confidence and sustaining market growth.”
Nigeria’s 51.19% return significantly outperformed major developed and emerging markets, where equity index returns generally remained below 25%. The MSCI All Country World Index posted gains of about 20%, highlighting just how impressive Nigeria’s performance was.
This momentum creates an ideal environment for what Dangote hopes will be “the golden stock of the Exchange.”
More Than Just Returns
Interestingly, this IPO serves multiple purposes beyond capital raising. Dangote has been frank about addressing monopoly concerns that have dogged his refinery project. “It’s important to list the refinery so that people will not be calling us a monopoly. They will now say we have shares, so let everybody have a part of it.”
These allegations have already affected expansion plans in the past, with Dangote scrapping a proposal for a 5,000-tonne steel plant after completing the refinery. By opening up ownership to the public, the listing addresses both perception issues and creates broader stakeholder buy-in for the project.
What to Watch For
The Dangote Group is currently in discussions with the NGX and the Securities and Exchange Commission to finalize the IPO structure. The plan also includes extending the dollar-denominated dividend arrangement to shareholders in Dangote Cement and Dangote Fertiliser, making this part of a comprehensive restructuring of how the Group rewards its investors.
While Dangote mentioned that international secondary listings are possible, he confirmed that the Nigerian market remains the priority for the initial offering. This keeps the opportunity squarely in the hands of Nigerian investors first.
A World-Class Asset for 2026
If this IPO comes to fruition as planned in 2026, it would be a rare convergence of factors: a world-class asset, an innovative structure that addresses local investor concerns, backing by substantial export revenues, and listing into a market that’s showing renewed vigour and global competitiveness.
For Nigerian investors who have long sought quality local opportunities with dollar exposure, this could be exactly what they’ve been waiting for. The combination of buying in naira while earning in dollars, participation in Africa’s largest refinery, and exposure to a group targeting aggressive growth makes this an opportunity worth watching very closely indeed.
So be sure to keep your eyes on the NGX in 2026. If Dangote delivers on this promise, we might be witnessing the birth of Nigeria’s most sought-after stock.
